The statisticians at bridgeviews.co.uk have been frantically working at their abaci (or abacuses – we don’t want to start an etymological argument) over the past few weeks, mining the 08/09 season for figures-based trinkets.
Amidst a flurry of equations, formulae and funny-looking Greek symbols they unearthed a remarkable finding: the ‘Guusrate’. Now, it all gets very complicated from here but the guys from the numbers dept. have broken down some of their key findings for us little people.
Firstly, Chelsea under Scolari achieved a 56% win ratio, with 36 games comprising 20 wins, 10 draws (28%) and 6 losses (17%). This included 25 games in the league, of which 14 were wins (56%), 7 were draws and 4 were losses. This league record added up to 49 points in total, or 1.96 points per game.
Under Guus however, Chelsea achieved a monumental 73.9% win ratio, with 23 games made up of 17 wins, 5 draws (25%) and 1 loss (5%). Again, this included 13 league games, of which 11 were wins, 1 was a draw and 1 was a loss. 34 points in total, or 2.62 points per game.
It’s clearly a flawed measure, but for interest’s sake the boffins worked out that, if Chelsea had scored points at what they came to term the ‘Guusrate’ across the entire season, they would have finished with a record breaking 99 points (well, 99.6, technically), and won the league at a canter.
To conclude the study, the bridgeviews stattos dusted down their solar-powered Casio to take all this analysis and apply them to the two respective halves of the season. So, if one assumes that:
Scolarirate + Guusrate = fleeting hope ending in disappointment atoned for with a glorious FA Cup win
Then one can also assume that:
Guusrate + Guusrate = victory on all fronts
Similarly:
Scolarirate + Scolarirate = total shambles
Of course, you can take all this a bit too far (Hiddink’s reign was very short and you can’t assume results) and I’m obviously writing this post intentionally tongue-in-cheek. But the central point of course is that Hiddink’s record at the club is virtually immaculate, and the turn-around of fortunes he managed to inspire remarkable. Mourinho could only dream of an 86% win ratio in the league.
Perhaps more impressive, Hiddink took a side that couldn't buy a win against top half of the table opposition and nabbed victories against Villa, Juventus, Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal (twice), Fulham, West Ham and Everton.
It’s mathematical nonsense, but thank you Guus – you saved our season. For heaven’s sake though, please no-one mention Ancelotti’s win ratio of 57% at Milan…
Very interesting! Would have been fascinating to have played a big premiership game with Guus at the helm - if we could just have changed a couple of those results (the losses to Liverpool and Manchester), our whole season might have ended differently. So near yet so far!
Posted by: KD | 03 June 2009 at 11:37
On a separate note: some interesting comments praising Ancelotti in The Times this morning:
"Ancelotti has never worked outside Italy." So what? Sir Alex Ferguson had never managed outside Scotland. Rafa Benitez had never managed outside Spain. Arsene Wenger had never managed outside France (except for two years in Japan, which, as we know, is ideal preparation for the Premier League).
"Italian football is not particularly strong at the moment." Neither was Portuguese football when Jose Mourinho came over. If you can only hire guys from the strongest leagues, maybe they could have brought Juande Ramos back to London.
"Ancelotti won just one league title in 14 seasons as a manager." For a start, it's actually 11 seasons. And he finished second on six occasions. On two of the four occasions when he failed to finish first or second, he won the Champions' League. Only twice in 11 full seasons in Serie A did he fail to finish first or second or win the Champions' League.
"How could Ancelotti possibly deal with megalomaniacal, intefering billionaire owner like Roman Abramovich?" This one's easy (even assuming that Abramovich is "megalomaniacal" and "inferfering" which, given that the guy never speaks in public, has yet to be proven). I have two words for you: Silvio Berlusconi.
Posted by: KD | 03 June 2009 at 11:49
That was the thing I felt the most at the FA Cup Final - that we were saying goodbye and thanks to Guus. Oddly made the day worthwhile, without that not sure I would have been that elated.
Don't care what The Times says - not sure about Ancelotti!
Posted by: KAS | 03 June 2009 at 11:50