Chelsea season in stats: prolific scorers, losing form and a stats-based betting tip

First of all, my apologies to regular readers: it’s been a long time since I’ve posted. Christmas, New Year and too much work have put paid to regular writing.

Without further ado however, it is suddenly that time again: the time to look back over the previous month and what the stats tell us about Chelsea’s progress this season. This month, a look at Chelsea’s alarming drop in form, fantastic scoring record and newly shaky defence. Oh, and a little tip on when to lay money on the next goal being scored…

Alarming drop in form putting title challenge in jeopardy?
It was all going so well – before December hit, that is. With the cold weather came some frozen performances from Ancelotti’s men, who have managed only two wins from the last six league matches. Extrapolating the rate at which points have been scored across the whole season, Chelsea have previously been on target for a mammoth points total: 93 at the end of October’s fixtures and 97 at the end of November. Ropey results in the twelfth month saw that projected total slide to just 85 points – a total that wouldn’t have been enough to win the league in any of the seasons since 02/03.

Goals still coming thick and fast
Despite the drop in form, Chelsea have scored a very respectable 45 goals in the league this season, behind only Arsenal (who have scored 51), and have failed to score only once. Scoring at a rate of 2.25 goals per game in the league, Chelsea are on target to score 85 over the full 38 games – 13 more than they managed in either of the title winning seasons last decade. It’s worth mentioning that the so-called ‘Invincibles’ scored just 73 goals during 03/04…

A psychological wobble?
While December form has been worrying, perhaps more concerning has been Chelsea’s recent and uncharacteristic failure to react to poor results. Following the loss to Man City (which itself came after misfortune at Ewood Park in the Carling Cup), Chelsea managed only two consecutive draws in response against Apoel and then Everton, and more poor results have followed. It’s very unlike Chelsea, who are normally mentally invulnerable: the team’s only two other losses this season were both followed up with good wins (wins over Apoel and Liverpool followed the loss to Wigan, and wins over Atletico, Bolton and Blackburn followed the loss to Villa). Across the season, Chelsea have gained positive results from losing positions on 9 occasions.

Scoring goals: it’s all about timing
As I picked up on earlier in the season, Chelsea frequently seem to ‘grow into’ games, becoming more effective as matches wear on. 60% of the 68 goals the Blues have scored this season have come in the second half of matches. If you’re watching Chelsea and looking to place an in-game bet on when the next goal will be scored, lump money on in the 50^th minute – 31% of all Chelsea’s goals (21) have come between the 51^st and 70^th minutes (the next most likely spell is between the 11^th and 30^th minutes, during which 20% of Chelsea’s goals have been scored). When he’s back from the African Cup of Nations, you’d be wise to bet on Drogba scoring too – in total he’s scored 28% of all Chelsea’s goals.

A defence gone to pieces?
In my previous two of my monthly ramblings on Chelsea stats I’ve lauded Chelsea’s watertight defence, and with good reason. Up to the Arsenal game, Ancelotti’s Chelsea had kept 14 clean sheets from 20 games and had conceded just 10 goals in that time – one every two games on average. Since the Arsenal game, Chelsea have only kept two clean sheets in eight games (against Watford and Birmingham) and have conceded at double the rate. Carlo has some work to do…

You might also be interested to: read what Chelsea’s stats looked like at the end of November, or look at Chelsea's stats in more detail.

Comments

[chelsfan]

interestng stuff. don't think things are going that abdly atm - lets see how things go without drog during the ACN.

interesting about the number of goals we are scoring...and compared with teh invincibles!

[zaneeb]

we have got so many own goals this season...

[Mave]

Good, in depth post and I'm with chelsfan, Chelsea are doing pretty well.

It's probably fair to say that the players still haven't quite become used to Ancelotti's way of doing things but the difference between this season and last was that there was no recovery after their dip in form. This year there has been.

We have done a ranking and rating analysis of the top seven teams although it's close, Chelsea are still the best team with the best eleven.

You can have a look at the rankings and ratings here: http://www.football-intelligence.co.uk/2010/01/04/premier-league-predictions/english-premier-league-ratings-and-rankings/