Premier League prediction: Champions Chelsea 85 points, Man Utd 83, Arsenal 80

By virtue of the weather, Chelsea found themselves knocked off top spot in the Premier League last week as Arsenal swept Bolton aside at the Emirates. In turn, Manchester Utd scored four against a hapless Hull to secure the lead for themselves at the weekend whilst Chelsea and Arsenal concerned themselves with the FA Cup –with varying degrees of success.

Those football fans expecting a form of pass the parcel to kick-off at the top of the table – much as has been the case with fourth place – are likely to be disappointed as the season progresses. Games in hand should even themselves out in the next couple of weeks, by which point we’ll probably have a far greater idea of where the Premier League trophy will end up come May.

Well that’s my view at least. A disappointing December eroded the optimism I had uncharacteristically built up about Chelsea’s chances and, despite outstanding performances against Watford and Sunderland (and a professional one against Preston), I’m still harbouring concerns that Chelsea will have to be at their most consistent best to win the league this year. Unlike many, I refuse to write United off and still see them as the most likely destination for the trophy alongside Ancelotti’s Chelsea. Begrudgingly I also have to admit that, in addition to playing some quality football, Arsenal have looked more threatening this year.

But I decided to put this pessimism to the test – to try and find out where it was coming from. I looked up the BBC’s Premier League predictor – which allows you to input scores for each of the remaining games this season and calculate the final league table. Did my pessimism match what I thought each individual result would be?

As it turns out, I’m really not that pessimistic. After predicting who-knows-how-many results for forthcoming Premier League games, I was almost surprised to see that, at least subconsciously, I still expect to see John Terry lifting the title for Chelsea come the end of this season.

My predictions led to Chelsea finishing top of the table with 85 points, Man Utd finishing second with 83 and Arsenal third with 78. Liverpool get fourth place by virtue of finishing with 69 points, four points ahead of Villa. For those more concerned about the bottom of the table, I had Bolton, Portsmouth and Hull as the unlucky three due relegation.

Coincidentally, 85 points is pretty much the figure Chelsea are on course for at the moment (I keep a record of what Chelsea’s potential points total could be, based on results to date, on the Chelsea stats page here). It wouldn’t be the highest points total in history, but it’s been a strange season in the Premier League. 

There’s room for manoeuvre, too – the total figure includes only draws with Birmingham (home), Arsenal (home), Everton (away), Man United (away), Man City (home), Spurs (away) and Liverpool (away). It does however rely on beating Aston Villa at home and anticipates going the rest of the season unbeaten: on recent evidence, highly unlikely.

Of course my final tally also relies on Chelsea’s closest rivals dropping points, too. I supposed that Arsenal would drop points to Villa (away), Man United (home), Stoke (away), Birmingham (away), Spurs (away), Fulham (home) and Man City (home). I reckoned Utd would drop points to Villa (away), Everton (away), Liverpool (home), Arsenal (away) and Man City (away).

There are some fairly big assumptions in there, and it’s almost guaranteed that Arsenal and Man Utd won’t drop points in so many games. But nevertheless I still surprised myself with my own optimism – so who knows what the end result will be. But, with Chelsea temporarily (we hope) falling to fourth, the chase is most certainly on…

It’s obviously a flawed way of predicting who will claim the title, but no less than any other. I’m keen for Chelsea fans to fill out their own <honest> predictions for the rest of the season on the BBC predictor here. Come back here and post the top four as you predict it, with final points scores, below: let’s see how optimistic we are collectively…

Comments

[am]

Lets just see at the end of the season. Nobody thought Chelsea would lose to Wigan.

I personally dont see Man U comming second unless they sign someone. Arsenal will be competeing them for 2nd.

Which means you got one thing right John Terry will lift the league again.

[matt busby]

i think this a bit of wishfull thinking you rentboys will witness the truth come may the mighty manchester united are on their way to a fourth title in a row

[chelsfan]

think the bbc predictor thing is brilliant... took me ages but just done it

had chelsea on 89, and both utd and arsneal on 87 each. not sure about that though, can't see us getting 89, but its difficult to predict as this season has been so different. reckon arsenal might struggle over the next few games, but if they pick up points over them then they will probably challenge

utd are always there. just one of those sad things you can rely on

[A gooner]

I love reading stuff like this.

[bridgeviews.co.uk]

A gooner - I suspect a little sarcasm?! How are Arsenal fans feeling about their title prospects then? Gooners in my office feeling as confident as they have in years, but were a little underwhelmed with the showing in the FA Cup this weekend.

[Hugo]

I hate to say it but all season I've expected to see you boys win the legue and I still think that now. I always thought we (The Arsenal) would be far stronger than people expected and push you far but just not quite be able to push ourselves over the line this season. United are so horribly reliant on Rooney that he has to stay fit and in form for them to have a chance, but you never know because they have a habit of forcing results. Just can't see them winning it though.

Chelsea or Arsenal. Obviously I hope we beat you (largely because I've always wanted us to win the title before you since Cashley left us "to win trophies"), but if I had to put my life savings on it I'd sadly put them your way.

[Kostaz]

It's either Chelsea or United for me,I can't see our London neighbors winning it,they just don't have what it takes.The forth spot is a hard call but the Scousers won't even be close.I expect us dropping points against both Manchester teams,Birminham and some other midtable team.

[www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1620408460]

With Man U and the Arse out of the FA Cup its one less distraction for them so in theory their players could be fresher in the final run in. However, we have strength in depth and quality across every position - with the exception of GK, so we should be able still have legs come April/May.

We need to make sure that we dominate the teams outside the top 4 and improve on our finishing as we seem to be wasting too many chances. We've beaten all our rivals this season and there's no reason to suggest we cant beat them all again.

We're without doubt the best team out there on paper so, barring injuries or a dodgy refereeing call I expect to see Chelsea lift the Premiership trophy in May.

[syd_master]

my prediction......

CHELSEA - 95pts
AARSENAL - 84
MAN UTD - 82
MAN CITY - 68
TOTTENHAM - 68
BIRMINGHAM - 59
LIVERPOOL - 58

i'm too optimistic??
hehehehe