bridge views - the thinking fan's chelsea blog

Chelsea season in stats: goals galore, effective Malouda and when they don't win

It’s been a funny old couple of months for Chelsea fans. A rich vein of form brought top of the league elation by the beginning of December, but turgid performances over the next few weeks saw new anxiety set in. January brought both the African Cup of Nations and some emphatic victories, but reviving fortunes were punctured by a dismal showing at Hull. In the very next game came a professional performance and a two nil win over Wenger’s Arsenal.

The top Premier League sides have been dropping more points and conceding more goals than in previous seasons, and it’s been a roller coaster ride. On the surface, however, it’s not looking bad for Chelsea who can boast a 72% win record under Ancelotti (Mourinho managed 71% in his three years), twenty clean sheets and having only failed to score once. What better time, then, for bridgeviews.co.uk’s monthly look back over the stats to look at what they can tell us about Chelsea’s progress?

Goals galore: and four players are getting all of them
In contrast to recent years, Chelsea have been prolific in front of goal this season, scoring 85 goals in total. Most have come at home, where the Stamford Bridge faithful have already celebrated 56 goals.

It’s in the league that the improvement in front of goal under Ancelotti is most marked. We are now two thirds (66%) of the way through the Premier League season and, having scored 60 goals, Chelsea are already 88% of the way towards matching the total number of goals scored last season, and 83% of the way to matching the club’s Premier League record (72). Scoring at rate of 2.4 goals per game, Chelsea are on target to score 92 over the course of the season, just five less than Man Utd’s current record of 97.

Perhaps even more surprising is that Chelsea are keeping up with their normally more attacking counterparts this season, having scored just one less than Man Utd and the same number as Arsenal. And they said our attack was ageing... 

 
Looking at the goals that have been scored however, it’s clear that the vast majority are being scored or created by four players: Drogba, Lampard, Anelka and Malouda. Between them they have scored 53 goals – 62% of all Chelsea’s goals – and made 31 assists. Drogba’s worth is clear for all to see, contributing (by way of scoring or providing an assist) a goal every 0.8 games, but Malouda’s effectiveness is perhaps more surprising. He’s made far less appearances than Drogba and Lampard (just 19, many from the subs bench) and has contributed a goal every 1.2 games. Lampard’s record stands at having contributed a goal every 1.3 games.

But a leaky defence is costing points
On the face of it, 20 clean sheets – that’s one in 56% of all the games Chelsea have played this season – looks a very good record.

If Chelsea don’t pick up any silverware this season however it will be because the defence is not what it once was. Petr Cech has been beaten 20 times in the league already this season – just four less than were conceded in all of last season combined. The club is comfortably on course for its worst defensive record in the league for five years, when 30 goals were conceded in 03/04.

A goal down? Chelsea probably won’t come back
Over the last five years Chelsea have earned a reputation for composure, resilience and mental toughness. But the stats suggest something a little different this season. In all of Chelsea’s 36 games so far this season, Ancelotti’s men have conceded the first goal 11 times (that’s nearly one in every three games). And in those games Chelsea have only come back to win four times, drawing six of them.

That might not seem so bad, but consider those stats in the face of Chelsea’s record against the so-called ‘big four’, which reads four games played, four wins, eight for zero against. Those eleven teams who have scored against Chelsea first aren’t typically the league’s best clubs, but mid to lower table opposition. The reason Chelsea aren’t further ahead of Man Utd is because of a worse than normal record against lower table opposition, and too many draws having conceded an early goal – the West Ham game being a case in point.

Playing away isn’t so easy
And no, I’m not referring to John Terry’s private life. Chelsea’s record at home – in contrast to last season – has been astonishing under Ancelotti, with 89% of all games played at Stamford Bridge ending in Chelsea victory. Chelsea have won 92% of all home league games, racking up an average of 2.9 points per game.

Away from the safety of SW6 however there is a very different picture. Chelsea have won just 50% of all away games in the league, and scored just 1.8 points per game in the process. Across all competitions, they have scored half as many goals away (21 compared to 39 at the Bridge) and concede more, too (12 compared with 8). Only a third of Chelsea’s clean sheets have come on their travels.

Many of the stats above can be rationalised – you can understand why they’re working out that way. Many, for example, have speculated that Drogba’s increased return is down to him being more consistently partnered with Anelka or Ancelotti understanding how to ‘man manage’ him. But the difference between home and away performance – such a dramatic change on last season’s form – is more difficult to explain. I’ll be posting on this later in the week. In the meantime, if you have any ideas why Chelsea’s luck is drying up away from home, please post a comment.

You might also be interested to read:

• How the stats looked in January: prolific scorers and losing form
• How the stats looked in December: all or nothing football and the trouble with playing away

No Mr Wenger, Chelsea did give Arsenal a 'football demonstration'

Wenger’s post-match comments yesterday seemed unfathomable following another defeat to Chelsea, but he gives himself little choice but to adopt such a stubborn demeanour. In the face of such a carbon-copy defeat in which Arsenal’s weaknesses were again so clinically exposed, the Frenchman really has nothing left to fall back on but a defence of footballing aesthetics.

Despite the scoreline – the second time this season his team have failed to score past Petr Cech – Wenger nevertheless insisted his team were ‘completely dominant’ at Stamford Bridge yesterday.

He said: “You have to congratulate Chelsea but we did not get a demonstration of football. But Chelsea were very efficient. We had mountains of possession and could not create it into a goal. We had 70 per cent of the possession. We were not running after the ball for 90 minutes. We were not in a position where we were dominated. We were always in an attacking position and had to risk things going wrong. Our spirit was great. I am completely happy with the performance and the spirit.”

Wenger also added: “They (Chelsea) are very experienced at the back. They make the foul at the right part of the pitch, in the middle of the pitch, to stop a counter-attack. A little push, not enough to be a yellow card. They have a lot of tricks and are very experienced. They do that very well. They got one or two decisions from the referee."

It is Wenger’s suggestion that Chelsea did not give a ‘demonstration of football’ that is, to me, most telling. To him there is only one definition for the game, one way in which it should be played. Whilst we should respect the football that his Arsenal side sometimes produce, the weaknesses in his team created by his single-mindedness should be met by derision in equal measure.

It’s often written about, but in contrast to their north London rivals Chelsea offer a far more complete brand of football. Ancelotti’s team – yes, to an extent courtesy of some very significant expenditure between 2003 and 2006 – have a rich blend of skill, pace, tactical maturity, composure and strength. Against the better teams, Arsenal seem only capable of bringing the first two to the table, and in those circumstances only a perfect performance is likely to yield results.

Chelsea certainly weren’t at their best yesterday, but their more complete brand of football – centred around a club ethos that values winning first - saw them through. That’s not to say of course that there weren’t glittering performances across the pitch: Lampard’s distribution was excellent, and his commitment in the tackle exemplary. Ballack’s radar was occasionally a little off, but he was tireless in midfield and must have covered more ground than any other player. Mikel’s first 45 minutes were probably his best for the club, and the defence – particularly Ashley Cole – were a picture of concentration and professionalism.

And, of course, it was a superlative performance from Drogba, who is surely the league’s best player this season despite Rooney’s reinvigorated showings.

Arsenal did dominate possession (although nothing like to the extent Wenger suggested at around 58%) and yes, they did show good spirit, but both are immaterial. Chelsea knew how to play them and set their stall out to render that possession and spirit redundant in the knowledge that if it didn’t work for Arsenal the game was there for the taking. Both teams had similar numbers of shots on goal yesterday, but it’s no coincidence that Chelsea managed four more inside the penalty box than Arsenal.

So actually – and contrary to Wenger’s assertions – it was Chelsea that gave the ‘footballing demonstration’ to Arsenal yesterday. It was a demonstration of football being all that it can be: a pass, a tackle, a driving run into the box, a steadfast concentration in defence or an intelligent ploy to break an opponent’s move down. Who knows, next time the teams line up against big four opposition it might all click for Arsenal and they’ll get the win they’re looking for - but it remains unlikely while Wenger refuses to play the percentages.

After yesterday’s elation at Stamford Bridge, long may his obduracy continue.

What Chelsea fans really think about John Terry scandal and England captaincy

Journalists have had their say on John Terry – both the allegations and the likely fallout – and so has Sports Minister Gerry Sutcliffe MP. Hundreds of thousands, probably millions, of people have heard and been influenced by the views of these qualified individuals.

But what about the people who watch football week-in, week-out, people who have invested time and money in the game? What are their views? Over the weekend, I asked for the views of the more than 3,000 Chelsea fans this blog is connected with on facebook. There were more than 130 responses within just half an hour.

Broadly, and as you would expect from a group made up exclusively of Chelsea fans, there is support for John Terry. But the extent to which people are prepared to overlook his off-field misdemeanours varies wildly, with some feeling deeply ashamed of their captain’s actions while others are ready to ignore them.

Either side of the debate, it’s certainly an issue that kicks up some emotional responses. Here are the pick of them.

Terry supporters

“I still think he's a top man. He's just human”

“Chelsea are my team and passion. What happens off the pitch is no business of true fans”

“I can’t believe you’re disappointed in him. he's still our captain, leader and legend”

“So that stuff is actually true? I don't really believe it, JT has been attacked by the press numerous times since he became captain and I think it's just one of those times”

“Other players did the same thing. Why blamed only JT? Don't tell me it’s because he is captain of England”

“Blimey people, do we REALLY have a right to judge him and his personal life? and more importantly do we really know ALL THE FACTS to talk about him and insult him that way??”

Terry sceptics

“There’s been no real mention of what Wayne Bridge probably went though, he probably left Chelsea because of it and now I doubt he wants play for England when given the chance. Not only did JT ruin Bridge’s relationship, he also played a part in messing with his career. Terry has a highly questionable character and as soon as Chelsea fans realise that the better! You all seem to think the press has it in for him, but have a look at all the things he's ever done, not just this. He's a disgrace and I'm ashamed to call him the captain of my club and country”

“As shown here whatever JT does the majority of Chelsea fans will worship him, and we wonder why no one likes us - it has nothing to do with our recent success. Terry’s not even our best centre back for god’s sake! He's a good leader but who would really want him as their leader after hearing this and what he's done to a fellow teammate? Bring back the good old days of the 90s Chelsea”

“I don’t think these are just allegations. Yes I agree this doesn’t change his performance on the pitch and he’s still a great captain, but there are certain boundaries. It’s not like this is the first time he’s done something absolutely stupid. People all over look up to him and then he just goes and lets us down”

"Affairs are par for the course in life." Well that's ok then. Listen, I'm not suggesting we abandon JT. I wouldn't take the England captaincy from him either. But that's not to say we can't - or shouldn't - be disappointed with his behaviour. And, on a very practical level, he should be more savvy and realise that someone in his position is more vulnerable to their mistakes than you or I”

On the England captaincy

“Why sack him from being England captain? These things happen 100 times day in people’s lives. It’s just because he’s high profile - if he played for a lower league club it wouldn’t make the papers”

“He Should Stay As England Captain! He is The Best man For The Job tbh”

“This will not have any effect on John Terry's Chelsea career but probably does spell the end of his England captaincy. Despite the fact that he is the only natural leader in the England squad, many think that because of his past, his family, etc he's image is not what they want for England captain. Now he's done something that can genuinely effect the mood in the England dressing room, there will definitely be people pressing for him to go.”

“He is simply the best man to lead England to victory, don’t let his private life get in the way”

“Let’s Hope the captaincy goes to franky lamps! not Rooney, Gerrard or Rio.”

“As England/ Chelsea captain it’s about setting an example as he is a role model to youngsters. It’s a tough one, give Lamps the armband for England, Terry’s not even our best defender!!”

On the media

“There’s an appalling holier than thou article in the Telegraph saying that he must resign now. They should be critical of the witch-hunt the NotW are leading against him. Could the NotW not wait until after the world cup? I mean I admit his parents are clearly very dodgy and he's not the sharpest knife in the box when it comes to the people he surrounds himself with but why expect him a footballer to have a squeaky clean existence? He's immaculate on the field. A great player and a true pro. Surely the constant investigative rubbish is intrusive and ultimately counter productive?”

“The Media don't care if they kill his career. As long as they're getting paid for the stories the expose. Absolute roaches”

“They can't unsettle us on the field so will dig as much dirt as they can off it. Chelsea are offering their full support to JT and so should we. No-one is perfect. Should he be stripped of Chelsea and/or England captaincy over these allegations'? absolutely not. This goes on all the time and if everyone who did it lost their status in the workplace or their jobs, the dole payouts would be unaffordable”


What do you think – agree with any of the above? Post a comment.

You might also be interested to:

• Read why money, not morality will lose Terry the England captaincy
• Link up with www.bridgeviews.co.uk on facebook

Money not morality will cost Chelsea's John Terry the England captaincy

This one is going to rumble on and on. The papers are desperately trying to tell us that the pressure on Terry to resign the England captaincy is growing, almost oblivious to the fact that it is indeed they that are manufacturing the storm. The one real exception to that is Gerry Sutcliffe MP, the Sports Minister, who today inexplicably added to the squall by calling for the FA to take a stance on the Terry issue and suggesting Terry’s actions weren’t becoming of an England captain.

Why on earth is he getting involved? What has it got to do with him? Firm proof that the issue is spiralling far out of control, and may well end up costing John Terry his England captaincy.

Ironically however, for all the talk of John Terry’s leadership and command in the dressing room being called into question over his alleged dubious morality, the papers are largely missing the point. Surely the primary driver behind John Terry losing the England captaincy – rather than a loss of respect from team-mates or any sporting reasoning – will be a factor far more powerful than Fabio Capello’s opinion: money. 

Imagine you’re Umbro. Or Nationwide. Or whatever England sponsor the FA are wheeling out next week. How do you feel about your investment being tarnished in the eyes of your customers by association with a man of John Terry’s rapidly declining status? Would you want your brand associated with his image? In the case of Umbro for example, John Terry has always fronted the launch of all new England strips. To have John Terry leading an Umbro-sponsored launch would imply tacit support of John Terry – and his lifestyle - from Umbro, support they almost certainly wouldn’t want to give.

Tiger Woods sets the precedent here. After his similar fall from grace, arguably the world’s biggest sportsman was dropped by a myriad of the world’s largest brand names including Gillette, Accenture, Pepsi, Tag Heuer and AT & T within weeks of his misdemeanours hitting the headlines.

Perhaps – perhaps - John Terry’s situation is slightly different – the likes of Umbro are sponsoring a team, not an individual. It is possible too that sponsors have very different expectations of footballers than golfers. But it’s very likely marketing chiefs at those organisations will err on the side of caution, and threaten to pull the plug if Terry is not removed. If that happens the FA will probably have no choice but to force Capello’s hand.

As each new John-Terry-love-rat headline appears, so the potential damage to sponsors’ brands – as they see it – grows. Far more than their efforts to suggest team-mates are turning against him, this is by a margin the greatest damage journalists can do to John Terry’s prospects of leading his country in South Africa. In my view, John Terry is the only man for the job. But all the speculation around when Capello will make his decision on the captaincy could well be a red herring.

In reality, the Italian might end up not even having a choice - in which case Terry might have to hang up his Umbro-endorsed England boots for good.

You might also be interested to read:

• Terry rescues Chelsea Ladies FC to prove he has a heart
• Remembering the good side of John Terry