Chelsea season in stats: the truth about the fightback and more yellows than rivals

What a difference a month makes. Since the last stats post, Chelsea have crashed out of the Champions League and come unstuck at Ewood Park, but also mounted an extraordinary comeback leaving the club in good shape for a double.

As always, here’s the monthly look at what the stats tell us about Chelsea’s progress. This time around: a look at Chelsea’s yellow card record in comparison with our closest rivals, the truth about the recent Chelsea fightback and the impact of a declining defence.

Evidence of anti-Chelsea referee bias?
Well, probably not, but a look at how yellow cards have been awarded to Chelsea and their main rivals this season is interesting nonetheless. In total this season in the Premier League, 15 Chelsea players have received 48 yellow cards. That is more yellow cards than both Man Utd and Arsenal who, as of Saturday 10 April, had both received 44 yellows each (divided across 16 Utd players and 17 Arsenal players).

Interestingly however, those same Chelsea players have committed 310 fouls to merit those yellow cards – less than both the carded players at Utd and Arsenal (322 and 323 fouls respectively). Averaging it out, it has taken just 7.3 fouls for Chelsea players to earn yellow cards, but 10.5 and 9.4 fouls for Man Utd and Arsenal players respectively.

Looking at individual players is interesting, too. Ashley Cole’s reputation evidently goes before him, with referees far less lenient with his mistimed tackles. While three Chelsea players have received more yellows than him this season, it has taken just 2.8 fouls to receive each of his four yellow cards, which have been awarded once every 471 minutes he has played on average. Zhirkov receives most yellow cards per minutes on the pitch, with his three being awarded once every 257 minutes. Just for interest: Paul Scholes has been given eight yellow cards at a rate of one every 190 minutes and every 3.1 fouls.

And for reference: the Chelsea players that make the most fouls are easily Didier Drogba (45) and Michael Ballack (41). The next closest is Ivanovic with 34.

The truth about the Chelsea fightback
When Chelsea limped to a pathetic 1-1 draw with Blackburn at Ewood Park back in March it looked almost like the season was over. Just four games and four wins later, the season has completely turned on its head.

In those four games Chelsea have scored 17 goals and conceded just two, keeping two clean sheets. Whilst Chelsea were dominant against Portsmouth and Villa in the league, the stats counter-intuitively suggest that the wins have been more the result of a typically-Chelsea brutal efficiency than playing opposition off the pitch.

In the three league games (Portsmouth away, Man Utd Away and Villa at home) Chelsea have cumulatively completed only 33% more passes than their opponents (1,108 to their 837) – including completing less passes than Man Utd at Old Trafford. Chelsea have been far more effective at creating chances however, forcing 58% more attempts at goal than opponents (46 to their 29). Drogba, Lampard and Malouda et al. have been excellent at taking those chances too, converting 37% of all shots on goal.

Leaking defence prevents stress-free season
If there’s one reason why Chelsea haven’t run away with the trophies this season it has been an uncharacteristic weakness in defence.

It all started so well – in the early months of the season (August – November) the team were conceding just 0.5 goals per game on average. It all changed from there however, and in the club’s worst months of the season the team were conceding three times as many goals – 1.6 per game in December and 1.4 in February. In December alone Chelsea conceded 13 goals, albeit in eight games. The chart opposite shows the number of goals conceded and the average number conceded per game in each month since August 2009.

It’s difficult to see why the defence has declined so emphatically, conceding 30 goals so far in the Premier League this season compared to 15 in 04/05 over 38 games. We can guess though: maybe it’s down to a more liberal approach going forward? Has the John Terry scandal impacted on the form of the Chelsea captain and those around him? Is the ageing Carvalho a declining force? Have injuries in the latter part of the season taken their toll?

It’s probably a combination of all of those factors but, as the decline began in December when the back-line was relatively unaffected by injury and the Terry affair hadn’t hit the headlines, we can safely assume that either a more attacking gameplan or a more general decline in Chelsea’s key defensive players, probably the captain included, are to blame.

What do you think of all this: interesting or irrelevant? Post a comment. For full Chelsea team and player stats (is there a more comprehensive set of exclusively Chelsea stats on the web?), click here.

Comments

[EuroBlue]

I really think that rather than focusing only on the goals conceded, you should look at goal difference. I'll be honest, in a 7-2 win over Sunderland, I fail to get upset about the two goals conceded. A better assessment as to Chelsea's progress would be whether we continue to score more than we concede, and how much more.

[bridgeviews.co.uk]

EuroBlue - thanks for your comment. You're absolutely right of course, it's all relative.

Saying that though, there is obviously a fairly clear link between goals conceded and points won, and a more-than-expected number of losses and draws this season is certainly down to Chelsea leaking more goals than we would have thought. It certainly hasn't typically been down to us failing to score...

Who would have thought that scoring 2 against City at the Bridge wouldn't have been enough? Or three against Everton? Or three against Blackburn at Ewood Park in the Carling Cup?

I'd love to do lots of even more deep analysis of the stats, but there's also the question of time... And the fact that I'm no mathematician!

[Kostaz]

I think most of the yellow cards we received were justified.It looks to me as a result of desperate defending more than mistimed tackles.Our defenders and Mikel sometimes struggle against the opposition so a yellow card for stopping an attack that could lead to a goal is a rather good deal.