bridge views - the thinking fan's chelsea blog

Chelsea debate: Drogba, Anelka or both? Detailed stats that make the case

Following Chelsea’s narrow 1-0 win over Bolton on Tuesday, the Chelsea online chatrooms were awash with criticism of Ancelotti for fielding the wrong side. Some of the arguments focused on the omission of Cole and Malouda on the flanks, but on the whole the debate focused on one issue alone: should Chelsea start with just Drogba, just Anelka or both?

It’s an interesting debate: on the one hand, Chelsea seem to have scored more freely in recent months when Anelka has led the line alone, but on the other it seems implausible to leave out a striker who has already scored more than 30 goals this season. Equally, Chelsea seem to put in substandard performances when both are on the pitch at the same time.

But a lot of the argument focuses on how fans intuitively feel about how the team is working. And quite right too – football is far from an exact science. But do we have a real sense of how the team has really performed with just one of Drogba or Anelka, or with both together? Probably not beyond a superficial understanding.

I’ll write another post over the next 24 hours on what I think the answer is, but in the meantime I collected detailed stats on how the team has performed with either just one of Drogba or Anelka starting, or with both, in addition to basic stats about how two have performed over the last eight or nine months. I’ve looked at the team’s results, goals scored and conceded and how each player has performed under each of the systems.

My conclusions in full will follow in the next post but in the meantime, how do you think these figures add to the debate? Post a comment…

Drogba has ‘contributed’ more goals
Of course, this isn’t surprising. But Drogba has been far more effective than Anelka, scoring 32 goals and making 13 assists to the Frenchman’s 13 goals and 8 assists.

It’s easy to see the stark difference between the two when looking at their performances in the league. Both players have broadly had the same opportunity (allowing for the fact that when played together Anelka has often been pushed wide), Drogba having 2,411 minutes on the pitch, Anelka 2,388. In scoring 25 goals, Drogba has put the ball in the net on average once every 96 minutes. Add assists to that (and penalties won), the Ivorian has contributed a goal once every 60 minutes. Anelka lies far behind that, taking nearly three times longer to score a goal at an average of one every 265 minutes. Add assists and penalty wins into the mix, and he has contributed a goal every 140 minutes on average.

And Drogba’s goals are far more significant
It isn’t just that Drogba has scored more goals – he’s scored more important ones, too. 20% of Drogba’s 25 league goals this season have come against teams currently in the top four, and 40% against teams in the top half. In contrast, Anelka hasn’t scored against top four opposition, and 78% of his goals have come against teams in the bottom half of the table.

Just as I compared the effectiveness of Drogba and Rooney last month – giving a number of ‘points’ for each goal based on the league position of the team against which it was scored - I’ve done the same with Drogba and Anelka. I gave a range of points from 19 (for each goal scored against the team currently placed second in the table, Man Utd) to one (for each goal scored against the team currently 20th in the table, Portsmouth). The grid opposite – click to enlarge - shows where the Chelsea strikers have scored their goals, and how these ‘points’ were awarded. It isn’t unsurprising that Drogba is so far ahead, scoring 237 ‘points’ to Anelka’s 66 (he’s scored many more goals), but the difference is exaggerated by the higher calibre of opposition his goals have come against.

It isn’t just who goals have been scored against that have made Drogba’s goals more significant. In total Drogba has scored Chelsea’s first goal in 17 games, including against five sides currently in the top half of the league and twice against teams in the top four. On the other hand, Anelka has scored the first goal just ten times, but only once against a team in the top half of the table.

They’ve played together more than you think
Chelsea have played 50 games in total so far this season, and Drogba and Anelka have started together in exactly half of them. Drogba has led the line alone 10 times (20%), Anelka 11 times (22%). And for the record: neither Drogba nor Anelka have started in just three of those games (6%) and didn’t play at all in just one (2%).

Interestingly (and intuitively it makes sense), Ancelotti has been much more willing to play Drogba on his own away from home, with just 30% (3) of those games being played at Stamford Bridge. In contrast, of the games Anelka has started without Drogba, 64% (7) have been at home.

Chelsea win more when Anelka starts alone
Of the 25 matches Chelsea have started with both Drogba and Anelka, Chelsea have a fairly average win ratio of 60%. Worse still, they only drew three of those games (12%), losing seven (28%).

The record when Drogba starts alone is a little better. Chelsea have still won just 60% of those games (6), but are also unbeaten, drawing four during Chelsea’s December slump in form. In contrast, Chelsea’s results when Anelka have started alone are far more impressive, with Chelsea having won all of their games. It has to be said however that those games included just two sides currently in the top half of the Premier League in addition to two promoted sides, one relegated side and one team from the Championship.

Chelsea score more when just one starts
Ancelotti’s men have scored far more goals when either Drogba or Anelka have started upfront alone. When both have been selected together, Chelsea have scored just 1.96 goals per game, and when Drogba has started alone the rate increases to 2.5 goals per game. The record with Anelka starting without Drogba is far better again, averaging out at 3.2 goals per game, no doubt because of the seven-goal hauls against Sunderland and Aston Villa.

…and they concede more when Drogba starts alone
When Drogba has started alone, Chelsea have conceded at a rate of one goal per game. Chelsea are more effective defensively both when Anelka starts alone (conceding 0.55 goals per game) and when they both start (0.92 goals per game), but this isn’t surprising bearing in mind the greater number of away games played when Drogba has started alone, and the relatively more straightforward opposition faced when Anelka has.

Drogba scores under any system, Anelka doesn’t
Whether playing with or without Anelka, Drogba’s form has been such this season that he’s carried on scoring at pretty much the same rate. In games he’s started on his own, Drogba has scored nine goals (0.9 per game). With Anelka, he’s scored 21 goals (0.8 per game).

Anelka on the other hand doesn’t perform in front of goal when he’s played alongside Drogba and isn’t given a true centre-forward berth. When the Frenchman has started on his own he’s scored seven goals (0.6 per game), but when playing with Drogba he’s only scored six, his rate falling to a fairly miserable 0.24 goals per game.

For more football-related geekery:

• A statto’s homage to Hiddink
• Season in stats: the truth about the Chelsea fightback and the yellow card record

Chelsea season in stats: the truth about the fightback and more yellows than rivals

What a difference a month makes. Since the last stats post, Chelsea have crashed out of the Champions League and come unstuck at Ewood Park, but also mounted an extraordinary comeback leaving the club in good shape for a double.

As always, here’s the monthly look at what the stats tell us about Chelsea’s progress. This time around: a look at Chelsea’s yellow card record in comparison with our closest rivals, the truth about the recent Chelsea fightback and the impact of a declining defence.

Evidence of anti-Chelsea referee bias?
Well, probably not, but a look at how yellow cards have been awarded to Chelsea and their main rivals this season is interesting nonetheless. In total this season in the Premier League, 15 Chelsea players have received 48 yellow cards. That is more yellow cards than both Man Utd and Arsenal who, as of Saturday 10 April, had both received 44 yellows each (divided across 16 Utd players and 17 Arsenal players).

Interestingly however, those same Chelsea players have committed 310 fouls to merit those yellow cards – less than both the carded players at Utd and Arsenal (322 and 323 fouls respectively). Averaging it out, it has taken just 7.3 fouls for Chelsea players to earn yellow cards, but 10.5 and 9.4 fouls for Man Utd and Arsenal players respectively.

Looking at individual players is interesting, too. Ashley Cole’s reputation evidently goes before him, with referees far less lenient with his mistimed tackles. While three Chelsea players have received more yellows than him this season, it has taken just 2.8 fouls to receive each of his four yellow cards, which have been awarded once every 471 minutes he has played on average. Zhirkov receives most yellow cards per minutes on the pitch, with his three being awarded once every 257 minutes. Just for interest: Paul Scholes has been given eight yellow cards at a rate of one every 190 minutes and every 3.1 fouls.

And for reference: the Chelsea players that make the most fouls are easily Didier Drogba (45) and Michael Ballack (41). The next closest is Ivanovic with 34.

The truth about the Chelsea fightback
When Chelsea limped to a pathetic 1-1 draw with Blackburn at Ewood Park back in March it looked almost like the season was over. Just four games and four wins later, the season has completely turned on its head.

In those four games Chelsea have scored 17 goals and conceded just two, keeping two clean sheets. Whilst Chelsea were dominant against Portsmouth and Villa in the league, the stats counter-intuitively suggest that the wins have been more the result of a typically-Chelsea brutal efficiency than playing opposition off the pitch.

In the three league games (Portsmouth away, Man Utd Away and Villa at home) Chelsea have cumulatively completed only 33% more passes than their opponents (1,108 to their 837) – including completing less passes than Man Utd at Old Trafford. Chelsea have been far more effective at creating chances however, forcing 58% more attempts at goal than opponents (46 to their 29). Drogba, Lampard and Malouda et al. have been excellent at taking those chances too, converting 37% of all shots on goal.

Leaking defence prevents stress-free season
If there’s one reason why Chelsea haven’t run away with the trophies this season it has been an uncharacteristic weakness in defence.

It all started so well – in the early months of the season (August – November) the team were conceding just 0.5 goals per game on average. It all changed from there however, and in the club’s worst months of the season the team were conceding three times as many goals – 1.6 per game in December and 1.4 in February. In December alone Chelsea conceded 13 goals, albeit in eight games. The chart opposite shows the number of goals conceded and the average number conceded per game in each month since August 2009.

It’s difficult to see why the defence has declined so emphatically, conceding 30 goals so far in the Premier League this season compared to 15 in 04/05 over 38 games. We can guess though: maybe it’s down to a more liberal approach going forward? Has the John Terry scandal impacted on the form of the Chelsea captain and those around him? Is the ageing Carvalho a declining force? Have injuries in the latter part of the season taken their toll?

It’s probably a combination of all of those factors but, as the decline began in December when the back-line was relatively unaffected by injury and the Terry affair hadn’t hit the headlines, we can safely assume that either a more attacking gameplan or a more general decline in Chelsea’s key defensive players, probably the captain included, are to blame.

What do you think of all this: interesting or irrelevant? Post a comment. For full Chelsea team and player stats (is there a more comprehensive set of exclusively Chelsea stats on the web?), click here.

Drogba v. Rooney: Chelsea's Ivorian still has edge over Man Utd striker

However this season’s Premier League finishes, people will look back over the year at how two of the best strikers in the world have dominated proceedings for their clubs.

Earlier in the season I debated what evidence there was for Drogba, Rooney or Torres being the best striker in the league, and praised Drogba for being the most effective. Since then, even the most biased Chelsea fan would have to admit that Rooney has been on an incredible run of form and has proved prolific in front of goal. He now has four more goals in the league than Drogba, and effectively rendering the loss of Ronaldo irrelevant has been no mean feat.

Looking at the stats though, the difference between the two is too close to call. On average Rooney has scored a league goal every 95 minutes, Drogba has taken five minutes longer (a goal every 100 minutes). If you take into account assists though (Drogba has made nine compared with Rooney’s five) Drogba ‘contributes’ a goal every 71 minutes compared with one every 80 for Rooney.

Stats like this, of course, tell only one part of the story. Man Utd fans will point to Rooney’s other contributions to the team – for example his all action style, leadership, tracking-back and tackling. Chelsea fans of course would do the same for their man: he has probably been Chelsea’s most reliable defender from set pieces, he is one of the team’s most vocal leaders, he plays his game in the middle and out wide and his strength creates invaluable space for the likes of Anelka and Malouda.

So whilst these stats point to both strikers being almost equally balanced, I looked for other ways to compare their performance. Looking back over Drogba’s four goals against Arsenal this season, it occurred to me to compare which player scores most frequently against higher quality opponents. In this comparison, Drogba comes out comfortably ahead.

Flat track bullies?
So far this season, just over half (55%)of all Drogba’s 22 league goals have come against teams currently in the bottom half of the table. By comparison, 69% - or 18 – of Rooney’s goals have come against teams currently placed 11^th or below. Elsewhere, just 14% (3) of the Ivorian’s goals have come against the bottom three, while well over a third of Rooney’s (38%) have come against those currently in the relegation places. In fact, nine of Rooney’s 26 goals have come in the four matches Man Utd have played against Portsmouth and Hull.

Making it tough at the top?
Drogba’s record so far against teams higher in the table is impressive: 23% of his goals have come against top four opposition. Rooney has only scored three goals against the top four (12%). In total, less than a third (31%) of Rooney’s goals have come against teams in the top half of the league. While Rooney still has an opportunity to score against Chelsea to come, Drogba will face both United and Liverpool before the season is through.

Looking more broadly than just the percentages – and trying to give some proportional value to scoring against teams of different ability – I looked at giving each goal scored a number of points based on the league position of the team against which it was scored. I’m no mathematician, but giving a range of points from 20 (for each goal scored against the team currently placed first in the table, Man Utd) to one (for each goal scored against the team currently 20^th in the table, Portsmouth), seemed the fairest way.

Allotting points in this way, Drogba comes out on top again by a significant margin, scoring 220 ‘points’ to Rooney’s 181 (see table – click to enlarge).

Of course, in pointing to which player has been the most effective this season all these stats are flawed in some way. Firstly, not all games have been played, so whilst Drogba might have more games against better opposition to come, Rooney could well score hatfuls more against mid-table opponents still on Utd’s fixture list. More significantly, form changes everything too: one team’s resistance against Man Utd or Chelsea could be entirely different from one end of the season to the other. That also means that teams may have been in vastly different league positions. Furthermore, both players play in different sides who rely on them to varying degrees. Finally, I haven’t been able to look at goals scored in competitions other than the Premier League.

Nevertheless, the stats are indicative, and tell a part of the story that anecdote and opinion can’t reach. At the very least, they demonstrate how the number of goals in the ‘scored’ column alone doesn’t necessarily give the whole picture. Rooney will almost certainly win the key player of the year awards in the weeks to come – and those awards will be well deserved. But Drogba has been similarly unplayable and deserves equal recognition: the pre-World Cup hype of the English media and Chelsea’s recent decline shouldn’t colour judgement of his season come May.

Who would you have had in your team this season? Chelsea fans – would you exchange this season’s Drogba for Rooney? Maybe you’d exchange Drogba’s goals for less red cards and aggro from UEFA… Post a comment!

Chelsea season in stats: an English team; ageing squad creaks and Lampard v. Scholes

After a slight break from posting at bridgeviews.co.uk the latest monthly stats article has come round extra quick, but here it is again. This time a look at the contribution of Chelsea’s English contingent, uncovering a worrying trend on Chelsea’s results during periods of congested fixtures, a close look at Lampard’s stats and why Chelsea’s league challenge has gone off the rails.

A very English team?
For years now Chelsea have been criticised for not fielding enough English players (which seems particularly galling when compared to Arsenal’s record, for example) but actually Chelsea’s English contingent form the backbone of the club’s success.

Of the 28 squad players who have made an appearance so far this season, seven (25%) have been English. Five of those players (Lampard, Sturridge, Ashley Cole, Joe Cole and Terry) have scored a total of 26 of the team’s 91 goals – nearly a third (29%). Similarly, those same players have contributed 35% of all assists. All going to plan, four over those players should travel to South Africa to represent England at the World Cup.

The ageing squad is creaking - Chelsea can’t cope with fixture congestion
Looking back over the season’s results, Chelsea’s worsening form neatly coincides with periods of particularly bad fixture congestion.

When totalling those games played in months where there have been six fixtures or less (and there have been four months – September, October, November and January) Chelsea have done well, winning 18 of 21 games (86%). Very respectable. In months where Chelsea have had seven fixtures or more (there have been two of those – December and February), performance has been decidedly worse, with Chelsea winning just five out of 15 games (33%). Not too good at all.

Make no mistake, it’s a very bad omen indeed. If Chelsea progress to the end of each competition (yes, I know that’s looking doubtful, especially in the Champions League), there are a possible 18 games remaining. With just over 10 weeks left until the last game of the season, that would mean Chelsea will be required to play an average of over 7 games a month in that time. And by way of a direct comparison, during December, when Chelsea played eight games, the record read won two, drew five, lost one. Eek. Perhaps our ageing squad is more of a problem than we think?

Lamps on target for 20
In more encouraging news, after a spate of goals over recent weeks Lampard now looks to be back on target to once again score 20 goals this season. He has currently scored 15 (albeit with six of them – 40% - coming from the penalty spot) from 37 appearances, averaging one every 2.5 games. If he continues scoring at this rate, he will need to play 49 games to go.

There are a guaranteed 12 games remaining (10 league games plus one Champions League, one FA Cup) which, coincidently, neatly adds up to 49. If Chelsea don’t progress in either cup, the pressure will be on Frank to maintain his current scoring rate if he wants to get 20 goals for an incredible fifth season in a row…

Lampard versus Scholes
Much was made of Paul Scholes scoring his 100 Premier League goal last week, joining a short list of esteemed players that includes Chelsea’s Frank Lampard. Scholes is rightly celebrated – he has been an excellent, world class player for Man Utd for many years. But it got me thinking…

In danger of going on (and on) about Frank Lampard, I thought it would be interesting to compare the scoring rate of both players. On the face of it, their records aren’t that different: Lampard made 100 Premier League goals in his 14^th season in the Premier League, Scholes in his 16^th.

Over the course of their careers, the picture changes slightly however. Lampard has a record of a goal every 3.8 games, Scholes one every 4.4. But six of Frank’s 15 seasons were at West Ham, where he only scored 24 goals over 148 appearances. In his nine seasons at Chelsea (including the current one), Lampard has scored 95 Premier League goals, averaging one every 3.3 games, over 90 minutes less than his Utd Counterpart. It took Lampard just nine seasons of top class football to reach pretty much the same total as Scholes has managed during his entire career.

Of course – before Utd fans get too irritated by the comparison – this is just one aspect of the game. There is certainly more to both Lampard and Scholes’ games than scoring goals, and potentially more so with the latter. But it is an interesting comparison nonetheless, and I suppose my argument is around how Lampard will hopefully be perceived in years to come. Like Scholes, he should be held in the highest esteem.

Terrible form since November points to failing title challenge
Why not end on a pessimistic point?

In the twelve league games since 1^st December, Chelsea have won seven games, drawn 3 and lost two, registering 24 points. That’s two points a game on average. If that rate was sustained over an entire season, Chelsea would only score 76 points, only enough to finish fourth in each of the last two seasons. Enough said.

Chelsea season in stats: goals galore, effective Malouda and when they don't win

It’s been a funny old couple of months for Chelsea fans. A rich vein of form brought top of the league elation by the beginning of December, but turgid performances over the next few weeks saw new anxiety set in. January brought both the African Cup of Nations and some emphatic victories, but reviving fortunes were punctured by a dismal showing at Hull. In the very next game came a professional performance and a two nil win over Wenger’s Arsenal.

The top Premier League sides have been dropping more points and conceding more goals than in previous seasons, and it’s been a roller coaster ride. On the surface, however, it’s not looking bad for Chelsea who can boast a 72% win record under Ancelotti (Mourinho managed 71% in his three years), twenty clean sheets and having only failed to score once. What better time, then, for bridgeviews.co.uk’s monthly look back over the stats to look at what they can tell us about Chelsea’s progress?

Goals galore: and four players are getting all of them
In contrast to recent years, Chelsea have been prolific in front of goal this season, scoring 85 goals in total. Most have come at home, where the Stamford Bridge faithful have already celebrated 56 goals.

It’s in the league that the improvement in front of goal under Ancelotti is most marked. We are now two thirds (66%) of the way through the Premier League season and, having scored 60 goals, Chelsea are already 88% of the way towards matching the total number of goals scored last season, and 83% of the way to matching the club’s Premier League record (72). Scoring at rate of 2.4 goals per game, Chelsea are on target to score 92 over the course of the season, just five less than Man Utd’s current record of 97.

Perhaps even more surprising is that Chelsea are keeping up with their normally more attacking counterparts this season, having scored just one less than Man Utd and the same number as Arsenal. And they said our attack was ageing... 

 
Looking at the goals that have been scored however, it’s clear that the vast majority are being scored or created by four players: Drogba, Lampard, Anelka and Malouda. Between them they have scored 53 goals – 62% of all Chelsea’s goals – and made 31 assists. Drogba’s worth is clear for all to see, contributing (by way of scoring or providing an assist) a goal every 0.8 games, but Malouda’s effectiveness is perhaps more surprising. He’s made far less appearances than Drogba and Lampard (just 19, many from the subs bench) and has contributed a goal every 1.2 games. Lampard’s record stands at having contributed a goal every 1.3 games.

But a leaky defence is costing points
On the face of it, 20 clean sheets – that’s one in 56% of all the games Chelsea have played this season – looks a very good record.

If Chelsea don’t pick up any silverware this season however it will be because the defence is not what it once was. Petr Cech has been beaten 20 times in the league already this season – just four less than were conceded in all of last season combined. The club is comfortably on course for its worst defensive record in the league for five years, when 30 goals were conceded in 03/04.

A goal down? Chelsea probably won’t come back
Over the last five years Chelsea have earned a reputation for composure, resilience and mental toughness. But the stats suggest something a little different this season. In all of Chelsea’s 36 games so far this season, Ancelotti’s men have conceded the first goal 11 times (that’s nearly one in every three games). And in those games Chelsea have only come back to win four times, drawing six of them.

That might not seem so bad, but consider those stats in the face of Chelsea’s record against the so-called ‘big four’, which reads four games played, four wins, eight for zero against. Those eleven teams who have scored against Chelsea first aren’t typically the league’s best clubs, but mid to lower table opposition. The reason Chelsea aren’t further ahead of Man Utd is because of a worse than normal record against lower table opposition, and too many draws having conceded an early goal – the West Ham game being a case in point.

Playing away isn’t so easy
And no, I’m not referring to John Terry’s private life. Chelsea’s record at home – in contrast to last season – has been astonishing under Ancelotti, with 89% of all games played at Stamford Bridge ending in Chelsea victory. Chelsea have won 92% of all home league games, racking up an average of 2.9 points per game.

Away from the safety of SW6 however there is a very different picture. Chelsea have won just 50% of all away games in the league, and scored just 1.8 points per game in the process. Across all competitions, they have scored half as many goals away (21 compared to 39 at the Bridge) and concede more, too (12 compared with 8). Only a third of Chelsea’s clean sheets have come on their travels.

Many of the stats above can be rationalised – you can understand why they’re working out that way. Many, for example, have speculated that Drogba’s increased return is down to him being more consistently partnered with Anelka or Ancelotti understanding how to ‘man manage’ him. But the difference between home and away performance – such a dramatic change on last season’s form – is more difficult to explain. I’ll be posting on this later in the week. In the meantime, if you have any ideas why Chelsea’s luck is drying up away from home, please post a comment.

You might also be interested to read:

• How the stats looked in January: prolific scorers and losing form
• How the stats looked in December: all or nothing football and the trouble with playing away

Chelsea season in stats: prolific scorers, losing form and a stats-based betting tip

First of all, my apologies to regular readers: it’s been a long time since I’ve posted. Christmas, New Year and too much work have put paid to regular writing.

Without further ado however, it is suddenly that time again: the time to look back over the previous month and what the stats tell us about Chelsea’s progress this season. This month, a look at Chelsea’s alarming drop in form, fantastic scoring record and newly shaky defence. Oh, and a little tip on when to lay money on the next goal being scored…

Alarming drop in form putting title challenge in jeopardy?
It was all going so well – before December hit, that is. With the cold weather came some frozen performances from Ancelotti’s men, who have managed only two wins from the last six league matches. Extrapolating the rate at which points have been scored across the whole season, Chelsea have previously been on target for a mammoth points total: 93 at the end of October’s fixtures and 97 at the end of November. Ropey results in the twelfth month saw that projected total slide to just 85 points – a total that wouldn’t have been enough to win the league in any of the seasons since 02/03.

Goals still coming thick and fast
Despite the drop in form, Chelsea have scored a very respectable 45 goals in the league this season, behind only Arsenal (who have scored 51), and have failed to score only once. Scoring at a rate of 2.25 goals per game in the league, Chelsea are on target to score 85 over the full 38 games – 13 more than they managed in either of the title winning seasons last decade. It’s worth mentioning that the so-called ‘Invincibles’ scored just 73 goals during 03/04…

A psychological wobble?
While December form has been worrying, perhaps more concerning has been Chelsea’s recent and uncharacteristic failure to react to poor results. Following the loss to Man City (which itself came after misfortune at Ewood Park in the Carling Cup), Chelsea managed only two consecutive draws in response against Apoel and then Everton, and more poor results have followed. It’s very unlike Chelsea, who are normally mentally invulnerable: the team’s only two other losses this season were both followed up with good wins (wins over Apoel and Liverpool followed the loss to Wigan, and wins over Atletico, Bolton and Blackburn followed the loss to Villa). Across the season, Chelsea have gained positive results from losing positions on 9 occasions.

Scoring goals: it’s all about timing
As I picked up on earlier in the season, Chelsea frequently seem to ‘grow into’ games, becoming more effective as matches wear on. 60% of the 68 goals the Blues have scored this season have come in the second half of matches. If you’re watching Chelsea and looking to place an in-game bet on when the next goal will be scored, lump money on in the 50^th minute – 31% of all Chelsea’s goals (21) have come between the 51^st and 70^th minutes (the next most likely spell is between the 11^th and 30^th minutes, during which 20% of Chelsea’s goals have been scored). When he’s back from the African Cup of Nations, you’d be wise to bet on Drogba scoring too – in total he’s scored 28% of all Chelsea’s goals.

A defence gone to pieces?
In my previous two of my monthly ramblings on Chelsea stats I’ve lauded Chelsea’s watertight defence, and with good reason. Up to the Arsenal game, Ancelotti’s Chelsea had kept 14 clean sheets from 20 games and had conceded just 10 goals in that time – one every two games on average. Since the Arsenal game, Chelsea have only kept two clean sheets in eight games (against Watford and Birmingham) and have conceded at double the rate. Carlo has some work to do…

You might also be interested to: read what Chelsea’s stats looked like at the end of November, or look at Chelsea's stats in more detail.

Fabregas thinks Chelsea are average without Drogba - and he could be right

As if just to antagonise Chelsea fans, Fabregas was widely quoted yesterday as saying Chelsea would be merely an average side were it not for Didier Drogba.

Having watched his side’s defence get pummelled by the Ivorian just over a week ago, you can perhaps understand Fabregas’ comments. The Spaniard said: “Overall, I saw a Chelsea team that was normal but a team that probably has the best striker in the world. An average team that has the best striker in the world can always do something and Didier Drogba makes all the difference”.

At first I thought he was being more than a little bitter after Arsenal’s resounding loss, and that he was undermining the other ten players who started the game at the Emirates. It’s certainly doubtful many of Arsenal’s current players would find their way into Chelsea’s starting eleven, for example. A further argument against Fabregas’ theory would be that, in the four games Chelsea have played this season without their talismanic forward (three in the Champions League and one in the Carling Cup) Chelsea didn’t experience anything but victory.

But now I’ve thought more about it, perhaps Fabregas isn’t too far from the truth. Yes, Chelsea would be far from average with or without Drogba. But without him – this season at least – Ancelotti’s side would be a very different and far less threatening outfit. As attacking options go, you could easily argue that a Drogba-less Chelsea wouldn’t be far from ‘average’ when compared with immediate peers in the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A.

Drogba has been without peer at Chelsea, in the Premier League and probably European football so far this season. He is easily Chelsea’s top scorer with having scored 16 goals, as many as Anelka, Lampard and Kalou combined (Chelsea’s second, third and fourth highest scorers). He has single-handedly scored nearly one third of all Chelsea’s goals (29%).

Aside from goals his contribution has been immense. Making seven assists and winning four penalties means that Drogba has either scored or created 27 goals this term – pretty much half of all those Chelsea have scored. Can there be another striker with as a good a record?

And if that wasn’t enough testament to his effectiveness, Drogba has missed four of Chelsea’s 24 fixtures this season, been substituted off the field in six and come on as second half reinforcement in one. All that means it’s taken him just 1,650 minutes to rack up those 27 goals. On average, Drogba’s contribution can be summarised as having delivered Ancelotti a goal once every hour.

And all this says nothing of Drogba’s (underestimated) leadership qualities, his invaluable defensive work from corners and set pieces and how even his presence gives Chelsea the flexibility to play in different ways.

So yes, a Drogba-less Chelsea isn’t average and yes, it could still win games. But Drogba’s best form in a blue shirt has taken Chelsea to a new level this season and, as an unfortunate side effect, to a place where losing him could be catastrophic.

What do you think? Is there a striker in the world you’d rather have line up for Chelsea than Didier Drogba? Post a comment.

Chelsea season in stats: all or nothing football and the trouble with playing away

It’s that time again: the time when bridgeviews.co.uk takes a look back over the last month and what the stats tells us about Chelsea’s progress. This time, the focus is on all or nothing football, defence being king and a developing trend away from home…

It’s all or nothing
Into the fifth month of the Premier League season, it’s remarkable that Chelsea are yet to draw a game. While Ancelotti’s men have swept to wins in 80% of league matches so far, it seems the prospect of defeat isn’t having too much of an effect: all other games – against Wigan, Villa and latterly Man City – have ended in defeat. If it’s because Chelsea go gung-ho in the closing stages of matches when drawing, I’m all for it – what good is one point after all?

Defence is god
In last months’ stats post I said Chelsea’s defence was king, but I was wrong – it’s been better than that. John Terry’s back four has only conceded 15 goals in all competitions so far this season – that’s less than one goal for every two hours of football. The record at Stamford Bridge is even better, with the side not conceding a single goal since Hunt put one past Cech back in August. Conceding just one goal in 11 games is astounding, but away form is a slightly different story…

Home and away
Chelsea’s home record reads like a dream: played 11, won 11. In a surprising reversal of last season however, Chelsea’s Achilles heel has become games away from Stamford Bridge. Winning 58% of all away games is far from a dismal record, but losing a quarter of them isn’t quite so impressive. The difference between goals conceded home and away is even more marked, with Chelsea shipping nine goals on their travels.

With that in mind, you would be forgiven for thinking that Chelsea’s defence has gone to pieces when playing away from home – but it’s a bit more complicated than that. Looking at the three defeats Chelsea have suffered this season, three different main causes can be identified in each instance. Whilst defensive errors did cost Chelsea the points against Aston Villa, the back four actually had a good game against City last weekend – the fixture was lost because the midfield couldn’t gain a foothold in the game. Against Wigan it was Cech’s red card and the subsequent penalty that warped the final result.

Far from disaster – still on track?
Some fans and sections of the media – not least the atrociously biased Joe Royle – painted Chelsea’s loss to Man City as being almost apocalyptic for Ancelotti’s title challenge. Yes, the performance was concerning, but in reality we’re nowhere near crisis point yet. Overall Ancelotti has a 78% win record and Chelsea are scoring three and a half more goals than they are conceding (with goals coming from 12 players). In November Chelsea beat the two main rivals for the title, Man Utd and Arsenal, and are still on course to finish the season with more than 90 points.

It says something that, over the course of a season already 23 games old, Chelsea’s most unproductive run comprises just two games – a draw (Blackburn winning on penalties doesn’t count) and a loss. Draw seven games in a row (a la Man City) or win once in nine (a la Liverpool) – now that would be a real crisis.

Paying the penalty
It said a lot about the team’s weaknesses last season (or the number of referees who should have gone to Specsavers) that Chelsea rarely won penalties. With Joe Cole injured, there wasn’t a player who would naturally run at defenders and draw a foul in box. How many did Robben win for us, or Ronaldo for United? This season, it’s been different. An on-song Drogba has been felled in the box to win four penalties this season already – more than the total number won last year. Now to get Anelka and Lampard into the box more frequently…

Check out the updated 09/10 Chelsea stats page – more detailed information has been added today.

You might also be interested to read:

• Season in stats – the view in October
• Season in stats – the view in September

Drogba, Torres or Rooney? Chelsea have the best striker in the league

Watching Match of the Day this weekend – something I don’t normally do these days – it was great not only to watch Chelsea coast to a four nil away win over Bolton but also to see Alans Shearer and Hansen giving Drogba the praise he deserves for recent good form.

I was therefore pretty surprised when, after being asked by host Gary Lineker who was the best striker in the league, Hansen said Torres and Shearer said Rooney. I half suspect the Scot was showing some form of Liverpool allegiance and Shearer some form of England allegiance, but nevertheless found their decisions a little strange – especially Shearer’s.

Now I’m not going to argue that Torres isn’t by a margin the better finisher, or that Rooney isn’t better with the ball at his feet and running into space. But Drogba is top class in both of those respects, and outguns both in every other aspect of the game. Looking at the impact of each player on the games in which they have featured so far this season there should be no doubt that, on current form, Drogba is the best striker in the Premier League. 

The stats don’t lie. So far this season Chelsea have scored 39 goals. 20 of those have either been scored by Drogba (10), laid on with an assist from the Ivorian (7) or scored from the penalty spot once he’s been brought down in the box (3). That means that 51% of the goals Chelsea have scored have come about at least because of Drogba’s direct involvement.

But you can go further than that. Drogba hasn’t played in the three Champions League games so far, or in one of the Carling Cup ties (against QPR). Chelsea have scored 32 goals in the games in which he has played (11 fixtures), and Drogba has scored or created 20 of them. That’s a staggering 63%, and he is contributing nearly two goals a game. That isn’t normal. In the past his behaviour has been indefensible, but he’s sharpened up on that this season too. Ish.

Torres on the other hand has played 12 games (10 league, 2 Champions League) and scored 10 goals. Having played just 30 minutes of the Carlin Cup tie against Bolton, Drogba actually has a better goals to minutes ratio, and Torres doesn’t make nearly so many assists (just one in the Premier League). Liverpool have scored 25 goals in the Premier League and, in scoring or making 11 of them, Torres has only contributed 44%.

Similarly Rooney has played 12 games (10 league, 2 Champions League), scoring seven goals. He’s made no assists in the Premier League – so his percentages are even smaller than Torres’. He has contributed just 30% of United’s 23 league goals.

Now I’m not naïve enough to believe that stats tell the whole story. And of course, one man’s assist is just a touch on the ball before a goal, and more meaningful contributions can go unrecorded. Plus, Torres has been playing in a struggling side and has suffered injury and his manager’s unpredictable approach to substitutions.

But the stats are indicative, and his this season are well beyond normal expectations. At the very least, they certainly support the argument that Drogba is probably having his best season at Stamford Bridge since 06/07 when he was similarly unplayable.

Ancelotti should rest Drogba for the Atletico game tomorrow – there’s no point risking him. With his strength, pace and eye for goal Chelsea are twice as dangerous and him being on the pitch against United on Sunday could just make the difference.

Chelsea fans – what do you think? Who would you swap Drogba for, if anyone? Fans of other clubs – do you disagree with my view? Do Drogba’s ‘antics’ detract too much from his football? Post a comment…

Chelsea season in stats: a water-tight defence, invaluable Ivorian and lucky streak

Here’s another monthly look at what at what the stats tell us about Chelsea’s progress: this time with revelations about Lampard’s scoring rate, Chelsea’s deceptively good defence and a continuing reliance on Drogba. My obsession with football stats continues…

At this rate Lampard won’t score 20
Such is the quality of Frank Lampard that scoring just one goal in 12 games was a crisis. Now that he’s scored three in the last two his rate looks a whole lot more impressive and firmly into the realm of respectability for a player of his ability. He still needs a couple of quick goals to get himself back on 20 a season form however: if he carries on scoring at his current rate (one goal every 3.5 games) he’ll need to play 70 games during 09/10 to make that total – which clearly won’t happen.

Are Chelsea getting lucky?
14 games played – two penalties won (and scored) and two own goals. But to what extent do teams make their own luck?

Defence is king
After some unfortunate slip ups against Wigan and Villa, the media would have us believe that Chelsea’s defence was in crisis, Carvalho was past his prime and John Terry was a bad player. But in contrast to the knee jerk reaction, Chelsea’s defence is pretty rock solid, conceding just 0.6 goals a game on average. Carry on at that rate and Chelsea will concede just 22 goals in the league this season – comfortably less than any team managed during 08/09. Other key facts: Chelsea have kept nine clean sheets – a staggering 64% of games played – and haven’t conceded in any of the Champions League or League Cup games played so far.

More players are scoring more goals
I suggested during the last stat-attack that, in order for Chelsea to be successful, more players would need to start chipping in with goals. This has happened: now five players have scored three or more in all competitions. While at the end of September Drogba had scored 30% of all Chelsea’s goals, he’s now scored just 25% - and not because he’s stopped scoring.

But Drogba’s still invaluable
Scoring 8 goals from 10 games is pretty spectacular record. But it’s half the story – if you include the two penalties he’s won for the team and his seven assists, Drogba has played a critical role in 17 of Chelsea’s 24 goals scored in Premier League games (the only competition he’s played in). That’s seven in ten goals the Ivorian is having a hand in. Torres might score a few more, but it’s Drogba’s other attributes that make him the more valuable player.

A ‘reasonable’ record against better sides
So far Chelsea have played six of the teams currently in the top half of the Premier League (Spurs, Liverpool, Villa, Sunderland, Stoke, Wigan) winning four games, losing two, scoring 12 and conceding seven. It’s a very reasonable record, but those stats will come under threat once the games against Arsenal, United and Man City come around. Meanwhile, Chelsea have mopped up against more lowly opposition: four games against bottom half opponents have resulted in four wins with 12 goals scored and just 1 conceded.

For a full set of Chelsea team and player season stats broken down by competition, click here. If you think there’s any set of stats that would be useful or interesting to add to this page, let me know and I’ll start recording them.

The season in stats: mentally tough Chelsea start too slowly and over-rely on Drogba

Both this year and last much has been said about the age of Chelsea’s squad and how it will hinder the club’s charge for the title. Having kept detailed stats – on both the team’s performance and for individual players – since the Premier League began back in August I decided to take a look back at the records for the season so far to see what, if anything, they told us about the impact of an ageing squad.

While I was at it, the statto in me rose to the surface one again (it first came to the fore back in early June when I looked back at Hiddink’s incredible record at the club), and I found a number of other ‘interesting’ things…

Age isn’t affecting performance…so far
Far from fitness and stamina being a weakness, if anything Chelsea’s performance improves as time wears on and other teams tire. The vast majority of goals have been scored in the second half and two were scored after 90 minutes were up to steal last-gasp wins.

But Chelsea start too slowly
If age is affecting the team then its preventing Chelsea from sprinting out of the blocks. Chelsea haven’t scored in the first 30 minutes of any of the nine games they’ve played so far this season. Conversely two thirds of all goals conceded have been scored in the first half of matches, and two of those were scored before 20 minutes had passed.

The characteristic mental toughness is still there
All that experience is counting for something: surely there isn’t a more psychologically strong team in the league? In addition to the two goals that have been scored after 90 minutes, over a quarter of Chelsea’s goals (5) have been scored within five minutes of half time as other teams lose concentration. Chelsea have also won games having conceded first once in every three games they’ve played.

Drogba is the most important player on the pitch
The Ivorian has played a direct part in over half of all Chelsea’s goals, scoring six and contributing four assists. Take that away, what have you got? You get my point.

Three players are shouldering the goal-scoring burden
Together Drogba, Ballack and Anelka are scoring most of the goals – two thirds of them, actually. If one or two more players can chip in with a few more, the season will progress a whole lot more smoothly.

The goals scored to conceded ratio isn’t what it could be
Without scoring heavily, and despite the capitulation at Wigan on Saturday, Chelsea have still scored three times more goals than they have conceded. That’s not actually a bad ratio – better than both the season records for 06/07, 07/08 and 08/09, but not quite as good as 05/06 and far behind the stats for the record breaking season in 04/05 when Chelsea scored five times more goals than they conceded.

Lampard isn’t as deadly
Whether it’s down to diminished form or his new more advanced role is open to debate, but Lampard hasn’t been as effective this season. He’s only scored one goal so far – and that was from the penalty spot. He’s still made an important contribution, however, contributing four assists. Is his lower pass completion rate – just 60% against Fulham, for example – a problem, or just an indication that his more attacking role requires a more adventurous approach?

For a full set of Chelsea team and player season stats broken down by competition, click here. If you think there’s any set of stats that would be useful or interesting to add to this page, let me know and I’ll start recording them.

Introducing the ‘Guusrate’: a statto’s paen to Hiddink

The statisticians at bridgeviews.co.uk have been frantically working at their abaci (or abacuses – we don’t want to start an etymological argument) over the past few weeks, mining the 08/09 season for figures-based trinkets.

Amidst a flurry of equations, formulae and funny-looking Greek symbols they unearthed a remarkable finding: the ‘Guusrate’. Now, it all gets very complicated from here but the guys from the numbers dept. have broken down some of their key findings for us little people.

 

Firstly, Chelsea under Scolari achieved a 56% win ratio, with 36 games comprising 20 wins, 10 draws (28%) and 6 losses (17%). This included 25 games in the league, of which 14 were wins (56%), 7 were draws and 4 were losses. This league record added up to 49 points in total, or 1.96 points per game.

 

Under Guus however, Chelsea achieved a monumental 73.9% win ratio, with 23 games made up of 17 wins, 5 draws (25%) and 1 loss (5%). Again, this included 13 league games, of which 11 were wins, 1 was a draw and 1 was a loss. 34 points in total, or 2.62 points per game.

 

It’s clearly a flawed measure, but for interest’s sake the boffins worked out that, if Chelsea had scored points at what they came to term the ‘Guusrate’ across the entire season, they would have finished with a record breaking 99 points (well, 99.6, technically), and won the league at a canter.

 

To conclude the study, the bridgeviews stattos dusted down their solar-powered Casio to take all this analysis and apply them to the two respective halves of the season. So, if one assumes that:

 

Scolarirate + Guusrate = fleeting hope ending in disappointment atoned for with a glorious FA Cup win

Then one can also assume that:

Guusrate + Guusrate = victory on all fronts

Similarly:

Scolarirate + Scolarirate = total shambles

 

Of course, you can take all this a bit too far (Hiddink’s reign was very short and you can’t assume results) and I’m obviously writing this post intentionally tongue-in-cheek. But the central point of course is that Hiddink’s record at the club is virtually immaculate, and the turn-around of fortunes he managed to inspire remarkable. Mourinho could only dream of an 86% win ratio in the league.

 

Perhaps more impressive, Hiddink took a side that couldn't buy a win against top half of the table opposition and nabbed victories against Villa, Juventus, Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal (twice), Fulham, West Ham and Everton. 

 

It’s mathematical nonsense, but thank you Guus – you saved our season. For heaven’s sake though, please no-one mention Ancelotti’s win ratio of 57% at Milan…