Premier League preview - Chelsea rivals part II: Liverpool

A series of posts this week will look at each of Chelsea's main rivals for the Premier League. Yesterday it was Man Utd's turn - today, it's Liverpool.

Liverpool's title challenge last season died only marginally after their fans' statements that it was 'their year' stopped reverberating around internet messageboards. In reality though, last year's Liverpool was a much improved side and one that, towards the end of the season at least, Benitez had finally let off the leash.

Scoring more goals than any other team in the league, it was only their lingering propensity to put in sub-standard performances against mediocre sides that prevented them from winning league (that said, arguably it was only a series of lucky escapes early in the season that put them in the running). Can they find the consistency they've been looking for and challenge this season? A stuttering pre-season and the loss of an important player indicates no...

Ins and outs
Whilst not the same as United losing Ronaldo, losing Xabi Alonso is a very significant blow for Liverpool's title challenge. An excellent holding midfield player with excellent passing range alongside the defensively almost-flawless Mascherano, Alonso formed one part of an excellent central midfield partnership rivalled only by Chelsea's options. As a reminder of his quality, look back at Liverpool's fourth goal against Chelsea in the second leg of the Champions League quarter final last season - his first time volleyed pass wide may not have been the last touch before Kuyt headed in, but it was the definitive one. He will be diffiuclt to replace, bringing one to wonder why Benitez was so keen to get rid of him last summer. There's no love lost with Chelsea, though...

New signing Aquilani's talents are less clear - I haven't seen too much of him play. But he is more defensive than Alonso, and if Benitez plans to pair him with Masherano it will surely result in Liverpool being less liberal attack than they had been in the second half of last season. Time will tell, but one thing's for sure: he'll need to tone down his public comments of respect for Mussolini (honestly look it up, it's appalling). He is a little injury prone, too - Liverpool fans will have to wait six weeks before he recovers from his current injury.

Other players have come and go - notably the hugely overpriced Glen Johnson coming in and Arbeloa and the long-serving Hyypia going the other way, but none will have either the impact of Alonso or his replacement on the title race.

If he steps up, they'll win the league
An easy one. Aside from Gerrard and Masherano, Liverpool only have one other top-quality player - Fernando Torres - and it's the Spaniard alone that has the ability to move Liverpool on a step. On song Torres is probably the best striker in the world, and he's scored hatfuls of goals for Liverpool in relatively few appearances. If they can keep him fit and provide him with the service, he could score enough goals to propel Liverpool towards the summit. My bet however is that they won't - his legs are made of glass.

Where they'll lose it
Liverpool aren't entirely unlike Chelsea - where they'll come unstuck is through a lack of truly top-drawer creative players. Once again I'd expect them to struggle intermittently against stubborn defences, and a squad lacking quality across the board will hamstring them.

That said, there's another weakness. Perhaps it's down to the fact that none of their squad have won the league before, but last season it could be argued that Liverpool never really performed when the pressure was on. Beginning of the season, too early for anything to be at stake - play well and win. Mid-season, top of the table with United and Chelsea stuttering - favourites for the title Liverpool fade out of the race as United respond. End of the season with the league almost decided - Liverpool start to play better again. Actually the Champions League quarter final second leg against Chelsea was like Liverpool's season in microcosm - when they were out of the tie they played well, when they were in it they came unstuck. It's yet to be proven that this Liverpool team has the unerring tenacity needed to win the league.

bridgeviews.co.uk prediction
Looking at their team sheet, I simply don't believe Liverpool have the quality to replicate last season's performance, let alone win the league. They'll start unconvincingly, pick up a little mid-season but not have enough to challenge, eventually finishing third.

Comments

[JP]

Which games have you seen Aquilani play in and why do you think he will be more defensive than Alonso?

[Alan]

As a liverpool fan, i think it's a fair post and something which could happen because we certainly are weaker without Xabi. Nevertheless, we are wrong in saying that Aquilani is more defensive than Xabi. He is much more attack minded than Xabi Alonso and tend to play further forward than him. I admit that his injury record is something that worries more liverpool fans but we have other possibilities in the squad such as dropping Gerrard in Xabi's position and playing someone like Benayoun in Gerrard position for instance. But it's fantasy football right now... I really think that we really can win the league if we can get through the season with both Gerrard and Torres injury free. But it's a big IF.

[Russell Saunders]

Alan, JP - thanks for your comments. Goog do see fans of other clubs on here too.

Aquilani - just going on my impression of him having seen him play against Chelsea at Bridge last season and I think a couple of appearances with Italy.

He was actually playing a slightly more advanced role that evening, but him being more defensive was just an impression I got more generally.

Could well be wrong, as I say I haven't seen too much of him... He can certainly pick a pass though.

Alan - we agree on Torres. If he can play just an extra 10 games compared with last year, it'll all be very interesting indeed.

[brian]

more realistic assessment of our chances than anything on any of our sites, I think third would be a good par for us with current playing staff.

[Jay]

As another Liverpool fan I have too be a bit more defensive about our title chances. Liverpool's charge last year was not great, mainly down to injuries of key players but our strengh in depth was still there to been seen, as we scored more than any team without these key players for parts of the season. Rafa was looking to get rid of Alonso last year for a more forward thinking player in Barry. With Aquilani I think if fit we could be more attacking especially with a more attack minded right back in Johnson. If key players stay fit I think our goal tally will be impressive. I do think Chelsea are very strong and will be there at the end, to keep hold of Terry was very important and if you can play Drogba and Anelka together you won't have to worry about goals. I just hope Man U are not strong enough this season, if they lose one or two I think they will lose their fear factor with lesser teams.

[CFC_KD]

Totally agree with Jay about the fear factor for Man Utd. I think the league's pretty open this year - Man U and Chelsea perhaps not as strong as they have been, and Liverpool possibly on the up. Other sides (Everton, Villa, City) are looking stronger than they've ever been. On paper at least it appears it will be much more competitive. As such, a couple of early losses could really make a difference in the final accounting.