Premier League preview – Chelsea rivals part III: Arsenal

On Monday, we looked at Man Utd’s challenge. Yesterday, Liverpool’s. Today it’s the turn of Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal, who sit on the edge of a precipice.

My first point must be: who on earth knows what we can expect from Arsenal this term? I change my mind daily, half expecting our much-loved north London rivals to fall away and out of the Champions League spots, half expecting Wenger’s kids to miraculously come good and challenge for the title. And it’s this dichotomy that is the essence of the problem.

Arsenal have half a good side. Going forward they are pretty much as good as anyone in the league, and obviously they play some very ‘pretty’ football. But, whether it be through lack of funds or Wenger’s stubbornness, time and again they have failed to strengthen where they need to (if I was a gooner I’d be tearing my hair out). There is a core fallibility in their side that consistently overshadows Arsenal’s fine passing game.

It wasn’t so long ago that Arsenal were in the Champions League final. Whilst they were badly shown up in each, they also reached the semi final stages of both the Champions League and FA cup last season, so there’s clearly potential there. But this is a side in a precarious position – Everton and Aston Villa are improving and for Man City buying a player for £25m really is petty cash. On the pitch there are worrying signs too – in last season’s home league table, Arsenal placed 5^th. Could this be the year when it all goes very wrong for them?

Ins and outs
Arsenal’s pre-season transfer dealings can be better characterised by players they haven’t signed than players they have.

It was fairly obvious by the end of last season that Arsenal desperately needed defensive reinforcements, both at the back and in midfield. Yes, they have signed Vermaelen, who looks a solid player (if unproven at the highest level), but they’ve also lost Toure. The one area where they needed to improve – strength, leadership and experience in their own half – hasn’t been sufficiently filled. I was surprised in almost equal measure when Wenger was first linked with a move for Vieira and then dismissed the option to re-sign the Frenchman. Surely he would have been a relatively cheap but effective short-term option? Not everything needs to be long-term thrift, Arsene…

Love him or loathe him, losing Adebayor is a bigger miss than most Arsenal fans make out. The laid-back Tongolese has played 143 games for Arsenal and scored 62 goals – that’s nearly one in every two games and a better rate than most premiership strikers. He supposedly had a bad season last year, but still scored 16 goals in 38 appearances. Not terrible by any means, and he’ll get goals at Eastlands.

If he steps up, they'll win the league
It says something that it’s so much more difficult to answer this question than it was for Liverpool or Man Utd.

Even with the loss of Adebayor, Arsenal have plenty of firepower upfront with Van Persie, Arhsavin, Bendtner and Walcott, and my feeling is they’ll get enough goals. So, if Arsenal’s youngsters are to kick on and challenge for trophies, it will be because someone has stood up defensively to shore up Arsenal’s soft centre. It’s not going to be Fabregas – if they are to succeed either Song or Denilson will need to mould themselves into the midfield general role or Vermaelen will need to prove a very astute signing indeed.

It’s going to be tough for any of them to do it.

Where they'll lose it
Unless Wenger makes one or two surprising signings over the next twenty days, Arsenal’s dual lack of experience and defensive strength (both physically and technically) will make them too vulnerable in defence. They’re just too easy to intimidate and score against: scenes like United’s humbling of them in the Champions League second leg or Drogba steamrollering through them need to become a distant memory if they’ve any chance of success.

bridgeviews.co.uk prediction
Arsenal really are on the cusp of something this season. Trick is, on the cusp of what – their youngsters coming of age, or it all falling to pieces? My view is that, barring Wenger waking up to reality, it will be the latter – but not until 10/11. Arsenal will hold on and scrape 4^th.

Comments

[chelsfan]

good review, i agree with pretty much all of that, but i fancy them to do better than that this year. just a funny feeling i guess. think they might beat liverpool to 3rd.

also think that arshavin looked great last season - and he hadn't even settled into the prem yet!

[Russell Saunders]

Good point about Arshavin - he did look a bit good infront of goal.

I just think it won't matter though - they're too lightweight at the back and on the days that the attack isn't firing they'll leak goals.

Wonder what Arsenal fans are thinking? Most of my gooner mates are split between an almost blind love for Wenger and a kind of tired acceptance that they might not challenge again for a while.

[E W]

Gooner here. Probably the most level headed season preview for Arsenal I've read on any blog. I am tearing my hair out at Wneger's stubborn refusal to splash out the requisite £20m on a top DM. But I am also (quite reasonably I think) nurturing the hope that without too many injuries - and preseason does not bode well - we will have a tilt at the title like two year ago.
Let's see.

As for Chelsea ... aren't a lot of your players now in decline?

[Russell Saunders]

E W - thanks v. much for your comment, and really good to get fans of other clubs on the blog. Do try and be balanced - glad you agreed it was!

Like Chelsea, I genuinely think Arsenal are 1-2 players off a world-class, challenge-on-all-fronts side. I'm not sure it even needs a £25m signing - just one or two at £15m. Buying Mikel (back when we did) would have been a great move for you. God, if you fused the more physical, experienced players in our side (eg. Essien, Terry, and Drogba) with yours it would be unstoppable.

You're right - some of our players are in decline. Wouldn't say a lot though! It's a real issue however - I've been advocating the steady replacement of some of these players over the course of a few seasons, but it looks as if we're cruising towards the need for a massive (and expensive) overhaul in a couple of years.

We'll challenge this year, even if it's mostly because other teams have lost players. Standing still is the new moving forward...

[Gooner Gaz]

How refreshing, an honest analysis of Arsenal from a Chelsea perspective!

I agree with pretty much everything you have said and also one of the comments about us finishing above LFC.

I think the prem is yours this season, united looking short/light in midfield for me.

[Russell Saunders]

Thanks Gooner Gaz. I won't lie - I dislike Arsenal as much as the next Chelsea fan. But there's no point kidding yourself...

One question i have of Arsenal fans - kind of related to the topic above, I guess - what is behind the lack of signings? Is it Wenger being stubborn, or is there a real lack of money? Clearly there isn't loads of cash about, but i would have thought they'd be able to fund one or two decent signings.

Is Wenger taking one for the team, if you catch my drift?